Article A / 2025
Field of Education and Political Behavior: Predicting GAL/TAN Voting
The article asks why subjects of study help explain support for culturally open versus traditional-nationalist parties. It compares Europeans with similar qualifications and follows Dutch and German respondents over time. Earlier selection explains part of the pattern, while study and work can also contribute.
Explanation, evidence, and limits
Why would two people with the same qualification vote differently? Research often compares their level of education: secondary school, a bachelor's degree, or a master's degree. Hooghe, Marks, and Kamphorst argue that this misses another difference. A field of education is the subject studied, such as engineering, teaching, or sociology. At college, it is often called a major. A teacher and an engineer can have the same degree level while having different educational experiences.
The authors investigate a European division over immigration, cultural diversity, authority, and cooperation across borders. GAL means green, alternative, and libertarian parties, generally favoring cultural openness, personal freedom, and European integration. Here, libertarian concerns social autonomy, rather than simply opposition to government spending. TAN means traditionalist, authoritarian, and nationalist parties, emphasizing tradition, authority, national identity, and sovereignty. These labels describe parties' positions, not every supporter's character.
The proposed explanation concerns ways of understanding problems developed through repeated study. Cultural skills include interpreting history and literature; communicative skills include teaching and understanding social interaction. Economic skills include accounting and management; technical skills include computing and production methods. Subjects can combine them. The authors expect greater emphasis on social and cultural context to connect with more GAL support and less TAN support.
In our fictional housing example, students might learn to ask how rental rules and unequal negotiating power shape hardship, rather than explain it only through individual choices. These habits can influence which solutions seem reasonable. But students might already think this way before choosing a subject. Later work can strengthen it too. The article therefore investigates a sequence: who chooses the subject, what changes during study, and what continues afterwards.
Study details · four evidence anchors
The study in four receipts
- What was compared?
- The researchers compared party support among people who studied different subjects, while accounting for the qualification they reached and other recorded characteristics. The subject still added information. This challenges the idea that the education divide can be described only as graduates versus nongraduates.
- How was the subject measured?
- A score summarized how much a subject emphasized cultural and communicative skills relative to all four skill groups. Higher scores were associated with more GAL and less TAN voting. This is a measured difference in educational content, not a judgment that one kind of student is morally better.
- What did the timeline reveal?
- Eventual subject choice predicted party differences already in high school. In the German panel the differences strengthened during study and work, and the attendance analysis supported an additional shift toward Green support. Earlier selection and later educational influence can therefore coexist.
- What comparison is still missing?
- The attendance analysis compares an observed educational path with an estimated path without attendance. It does not assign the same student to two majors or isolate a lesson. It supports an argument about educational influence under assumptions, but cannot by itself show intentional partisan training.
The cross-national comparison covers 15 European countries. The main European Social Survey observations are from 2004, 2006, and 2008, the waves containing educational-subject information. Respondents were at least 21 and reported their vote in the most recent national election. The paper also reports a later Dutch robustness check.
The skill measure adapts the 1998 Family Survey of the Dutch Population, which asked respondents to rate 16 skills on a five-point scale. Cultural and communicative emphasis is divided by emphasis across all four skill domains. Educational and occupational CECT scores are rescaled from zero to one. The occupational score averages the educational scores of people in that occupation.
The high-school-through-completion analysis uses 443 Dutch LISS respondents with 2,271 observations and 4,040 German SOEP respondents with 46,364 observations. These are specific analysis samples, not the entire study. LISS uses party-sympathy ratings; SOEP uses whether the respondent would consider voting for the Greens. The German analysis does not estimate TAN intentions.
The larger German attendance analysis includes people aged up to 30. It uses the IFEct counterfactual estimator, constructing an alternative without attendance from comparison observations, and repeats the analysis for groups above the median subject score and at or below it. Interpretation requires assumptions about the alternative trend; the paper examines pre-attendance patterns and notes small deviations. This is not random assignment to a major.
How the researchers studied it
The European Social Survey comparison asks whether people studying different subjects supported different parties, even when degree level, income, gender, and other recorded characteristics are considered. This statistical adjustment tests whether subject adds information beyond those characteristics; it does not make the people identical.
The subject score comes from survey ratings of educational content. For each subject, the researchers compare the combined emphasis on cultural and communicative skills with the total across all four skill groups. A higher score means greater relative emphasis on the first two. It is not a measure of caring or intelligence. Science and mathematics score differently from engineering, so it is not simply a humanities-versus-STEM divide.
The researchers also use panels: surveys returning to the same people over time. Dutch respondents report sympathy toward parties; German respondents report whether they would consider voting Green. A further German analysis estimates their political path without higher-education attendance—a counterfactual—and compares it with the observed path. Comparing this attendance estimate across subject groups differs from making one student change major.
What they found
A higher cultural-communicative skill score was associated with more GAL and less TAN voting after accounting for degree level and other characteristics. Subject adds information that qualification alone misses. Educational backgrounds typical of an occupation also help explain party support.
Eventual subjects already predicted differences in party sympathy in high school, supporting selection through earlier influences. In Germany the relationship strengthens during study and work; the smaller Dutch analysis does not show clear growth across stages. The German counterfactual analysis supports a shift toward Green support after attendance in both subject groups, larger in the higher-score group. Earlier selection and later educational influence can therefore coexist.
Where the claim stops
The study supports examining educational content alongside qualifications. It does not isolate a lecturer, lesson, or peer group: these experiences can change together. The counterfactual estimate requires a credible alternative path without attendance. Group tendencies also cannot guarantee an individual's vote.
The findings do not estimate a change of major or Meridian's proposed department closure. Nor does educational influence establish a deliberate plan to train party supporters. That intention requires evidence about institutional goals and actions.
Closing a program changes the choices available to applicants: some may enter another subject or another institution. To predict the political effect of a closure, we therefore need evidence about those changed pathways, not just existing differences between graduates.
Read the original sections Education and the Socio-Cultural Divide; Data and Measures; Where Do Differences Between Fields Come From?; and Conclusion.
Read first: Start with the abstract and the explanation of the four skill groups. Then read the panel section to see why earlier differences and later change can both matter.
Open-access full text on the publisher page · CC BY.
